Forecast need, business and finance assignment help

STUDENT #1

Forecast need

Describe what question this forecast aims to answer, and why it is important for your organization to have this information.

There has been a critical need to forecast the expected frequencies of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) cases in the Mosaic Life Care OR for 2017. This forecast is needed to determine if there is a legitimate and necessary need to acquire an additional vascular surgeon to assist with the increasing caseload of AAA cases.

Forecast situation analysis

Category	Dimension	Questions	Answer to the questions
Time	Span	Is the forecast period a present, short/medium, or long-term projection?	Long-term – if necessary, a surgeon will be hired in the 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2017
	Urgency	Is the forecast needed immediately?	Yes- searching and hiring the right surgeon is a lengthy process and we need to get started as soon as possible
	Frequency	Are frequent forecast updates needed?	No – a one-time analysis will give us the correct information
Resource	Math skills	Are quantitative skills limited?	No – we have plenty of quantitative skills to implement
	Computer	Are computer capabilities limited?	No – we have ample software information to assist in obtaining the data
	Financial	Are only limited financial resources available?	No – we have complete financials available
Input	Antecedent	Are only limited past data available?	No – all relevant past data is available
	Variability	Does the primary series fluctuate substantially?	No – the primary series remains the same
	Internal consistency	Are significant changes in management decisions expected?	No – there will be no significant changes in management decisions
	External consistency	Are significant environmental changes expected?	No – there will be no environmental changes
	External stability	Are significant shifts expected among variable relationships?	No – the shifts among variable relationships will not be significant
Output	Detail	Are component forecasts required?	Yes – multiple component forecasts are need
	Accuracy	Is a high level of accuracy critical?	No – based on the past data, the detail and accuracy is not extremely critical
	Capability for reflecting direction changes	Should turning points be reflected properly?	Yes – turning points need to be reflected
	Capability for detecting direction changes	Should turning points be identified early?	No – early identification is not necessary
	Form	Is an internal or probabilistic forecast critical?	Yes – and internal forecast is critical

Recommendations

Which forecasting methodology listed in the article is the best match to your situation?

Based on the table on pages 4 and 5 in the article, the best match for my situation is the Judgement Method – Historical Analogy. These forecasts are predictions based on elements of past events that are analogous to the present situation.

Describe how this forecast will be executed: Who will do it, where will the data come from, how frequently will it be repeated, and how will the results be used?

The forecast will be executed in the following manner:

• Who will do it – There are 2 OR Clinical Specialist positions which have the knowledge and access to obtain all of the necessary information for this forecast.
• Where will the data come from – The data will come from the Lawson computer system. We will use 5 years’ worth of data. This data will include the degree of difficulty for each AAA case, average time in OR, follow-up and recovery time which requires the surgeon’s additional care, frequency of AAA cases, a comparison of scheduled cases versus emergency cases, information regarding patient (age, gender, ailment onset, etc.).
• How frequently will it be repeated – Once this data is compiled and analyzed, there is no need for it to be repeated. The final decision can be accurately based on data from the past 5 years.
• How will the results be used – The results will answer a large range of questions which will ultimately determine if there is a need to acquire an additional vascular surgeon for the Mosaic OR team. There appears to be a steady increase in AAA cases, which only specialty trained surgeons can perform. Currently the workload has exceeded the abilities of the 2 vascular surgeons currently on staff. With the responsibilities in the clinic setting increasing, their available time in the OR is limited which may be leaving a gap that needs to be filled by another surgeon. The data from the past 5 years will provide an accurate snapshot of trending with AAA surgical cases. Since it is a rather lengthy process to search for and acquire a qualified and specialty trained surgeon for these purposes, the need for the forecast is immediate. If it is determined that an additional surgeon is necessary, Human Resources may begin their processes immediately. STUDENT #2
• Hi Professor & Classmates:

  Below is my Unit 5 Discussion:

  Forecast need: Describe what question this forecast aims to answer, and why it is important for your organization to have this information. We need to forecast the domestic sales of oral care products at Colgate Company. It is important for my organization to have this information to augment profits, decrease costs, and achieve greater flexibility to changes.

  Forecast situation analysis
  Category	Dimension	Questions	Answer to the questions
  Time	Span	Is the forecast period a present, short/medium, or long term projection?	Short/Medium: Forecasts are generally made one full calendar year ahead, broken down by months
  	Urgency	Is the forecast needed immediately?	Computation is quick since data is readily available
  	Frequency	Are frequent forecast updates needed?	Forecasts can be systematically updated easily
  Resource	Math Skills	Are quantitative skills limited?	A fundamental competency level is required
  	Computer	Are computer capabilities limited?	A computer is helpful for repetitive updating
  	Financial	Are only limited financial resources available?	Since data is readily available, out-of-pocket costs are minimal
  Input	Antecedent	Are only limited past data available?	Past data is essential although detail and extent vary
  	Variability	Does the primary series fluctuate substantially?	Wide fluctuations result in decreased confidence in projected outcomes
  	Internal Consistency	Are significant change in management decisions expected?	Cannot validly reflect changes
  	External Consistency	Are significant environmental changes expected?	Cannot validly reflect changes
  	External Stability	Are significant shifts expected among variable relationships?	Cannot validly reflect shifts
  Output	Detail	Are component forecasts required?	Focus can be readily restricted
  	Accuracy	Is a high level of accuracy critical?	Normally accurate for trends and stationery series
  	Capability for reflecting direction changes	Should turning points be reflected properly?	Very unresponsive
  	Capability for detecting direction changes	Should turning points be identified early?	Cannot anticipate turning points
  	Form	Is an internal or probabilistic forecast critical?	Probability range is easily constructed

  Recommendations:
  Which forecasting methodology listed in the article is the best match to your situation? The forecasting methodology that best matches my situation is times series extrapolation.
  Describe how this forecast will be executed: Who will do it, where will the data come from, how frequently will it be repeated, and how will the results be used? Dan Sale, the Manager of Sales Forecasting, will execute the times series extrapolation method of forecasting. He will use statistical models to prepare the forecasts. The data will come from Nielsen Data, a company that studies consumers buying trends. Historical data will be adjusted to remove any abnormalities to provide a good base and then the numbers will be judgmentally adjusted, using the forecaster’s market intelligence, to reflect the most recent conditions. Dan will monitor forecasts on a daily basis to determine if there is any big swing in any particular day, and he will check which items were causing it. He will have monthly meetings with the Finance Department so that finance can make sure that changes do not cost the organization additional money and he will meet with the Marketing Department since they have more at stake and are held responsible by top management for profit numbers. He will also meet with the Sales team to do a recap of what caused oversells and undersells. Salespeople who regularly call upon accounts will tell him whether or not our organization is competitive. The meetings will start out with a review of the prior month. Dan will compare actuals with forecasts, percentage errors, and misses that occurs by size and why. Explanations will include whether it was a timing factor or a short fall in that particular situation. After that, he will go into the current month, what his projections are and how orders are being tracked. The results will be used to provide to top management so that management can determine how much production needs to be done in order to get an idea about capacity constraint. Management will use the forecast to maintain a certain profit number while keeping inventory low.